SMU price ranges: Sheet down broadly, HR $35/t lower - Steel Market Update

Steel Prices

Written by Brett Linton & David Schollaert

May 7, 2024

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Sheet prices fell across the board this week – largely in response to Nucor’s $65-per-short-ton price cut for hot-rolled (HR) coil on Monday morning.

SMU’s HR coil price is $780/st on average, a $35/st decrease week over week (w/w). Our average cold-rolled coil price is $1,090/st (down $30/st w/w). Our galvanized base price is $1,100/st on average (down $20/st w/w). And our Galvalume price now stands at $1,090/st on average (down $10/st w/w).

Nucor’s move surprised most people we contacted. Some said it could reflect a market that might be slowing down.

“I hope prices level off because continued declines will just make it more of a shock when they inevitably turn upwards,” said one service center executive. “But no signs from here of anything changing that trajectory.”

“They (US mills) blamed the importers. But that business had already been sold. And the next import offers will probably be $80 to $100 a ton below current domestic pricing – so the cycle continues,” said another service center executive.

Our plate price this week is $1,170/st on average – $20/st lower than last week. Prices continue to edge lower following Nucor’s plate price cut.

SMU has shifted its sheet price momentum indicators from neutral to lower. Our plate price momentum indicator remains lower.

The SMU price range is $735-825/st, with an average of $780/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is $45/st lower w/w and the top end is $25/st lower. Our overall average is down $35/st compared to last week. Our price momentum indicator for HR has been adjusted to lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Hot rolled lead times range from 3-7 weeks, averaging 5.0 weeks as of our April 24 market survey.

The SMU price range is $1,020–1,160/st, with an average of $1,090/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is $60/st lower w/w, while the top end is unchanged. Our overall average is down $30/st from the previous week. Our price momentum indicator for CR has been adjusted to lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Cold rolled lead times range from 5-10 weeks, averaging 7.5 weeks through our latest survey.

The SMU price range is $1,040–1,160/st, with an average of $1,100/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is $40/st lower w/w, while the top of our range is unchanged. Our overall average is $20/st lower than last week. Our price momentum indicator for galvanized has been adjusted to lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 benchmark: SMU price range is $1,137–1,257/st with an average of $1,197/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized lead times range from 5-10 weeks, averaging 7.3 weeks through our latest survey.

The SMU price range is $1,040–1,140/st, with an average of $1,090/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range is $20/st lower w/w, while the top end was unchanged. Our overall average is down $10/st compared to the previous week. Our price momentum indicator for Galvalume has been adjusted to lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, grade 80 benchmark: SMU price range is $1,334–1,434/st with an average of $1,384/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume lead times range from 7-9 weeks, averaging 7.6 weeks through our latest survey.

The SMU price range is $1,140–1,200/st, with an average of $1,170/st FOB mill. The lower end of our range is unchanged w/w, while the top end is $40/st lower. Our overall average is down $20/st from last week. Our price momentum indicator for plate remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

Plate lead times range from 4-7 weeks, averaging 5.7 weeks through our latest survey.

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at [email protected] or 724-314-0179.

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at [email protected] or 724-720-1008.

After holding its weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil steady for three weeks at $730 per short ton (st), Nucor lowered the price this week by $10/st.

The price gap between US-produced cold-rolled (CR) coil and offshore products narrowed slightly again in the week ended Oct. 11, mainly due to a stateside price cut.

CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares insight into the hot-rolled coil futures market.

US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices slipped this past week but remain marginally higher than offshore material on a landed basis.

Nucor said it would keep plate prices unchanged in a letter to customers on Wednesday.The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker in addition said it was opening its November order book for plate.The company did not specify what its plate price was. It has officially kept prices flat since cutting them by $125 per short ton (st) on July 1.